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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Vendor Code_V0882 and organised by neighbourhoods toEverything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson